Short term · weeks to months
Catalyst-driven setups. Known events with known dates: earnings, FDA decisions, Fed meetings, product launches.
Why this timeframe
Catalysts have known dates. Earnings, FDA approvals, Fed prints — they all hit on the calendar. You can plan entries and exits around them.
Hit rate reality
Realistic hit rate: 40-55%. You can be right about the event and still lose money to sentiment, IV crush, or sector rotation. R/R discipline matters more than win rate.
Why it's impactful
When sized right, a 3:1 R/R at 40% win rate compounds. Short-term plays let you put capital to work multiple times per year — and the math of compounding rewards turnover.
What to watch in the next few weeks
- Earnings season — guidance matters more than the print itself. Watch hyperscaler capex commentary.
- Fed meetings — bond yields drive growth-stock multiples. Powell's pressers move markets more than the dot plot.
- Sector rotation — money flows from one theme to another every few months. Watch for breadth.
- Opex weeks (3rd Friday) — extra volatility from options unwinds, both directions.
- CPI / PCE prints — known dates, often the largest single-day moves of the month.
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