Futures
Live futures across equities, energy, metals, rates, ag, FX, and crypto. Tap any contract for the chart, specs, and Claude's view.
Why futures matter even if you don't trade them
ES (S&P futures) tell you where stocks will open before market open. Gold (GC) signals risk-off. Crude (CL) drives inflation expectations. The 10-year (ZN) drives mortgage rates and growth-stock multiples. Watch the futures, even if you only trade stocks.
Futures essentials
What is a futures contract?+
A legally binding agreement to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a set future date. You don't pay the full value upfront — you post 'margin' (typically 5-10% of contract value), and your account is marked-to-market every day. Daily gains/losses settle in cash to your account.
Analogy
Think of it like signing a lease: you commit to a future transaction, put down a deposit (margin), and the value of your contract fluctuates daily based on how the market views your locked-in price vs. current spot.Why traders use futures+
Three real reasons: (1) leverage — control $100k of S&P exposure for $13k margin; (2) 24-hour trading (overnight Fed news? you can react immediately); (3) shorting is symmetric — going long vs short is the same operation, no borrow fees. For hedgers (farmers, airlines, miners), they lock in future prices.
Contract size and tick value+
Every futures contract has a defined size. ES = $50 × S&P index. So if S&P moves 1 point (one 'tick' is 0.25 → $12.50), your P&L moves $50 × 1 = $50 per contract. Multiply by your position size. This is why futures are dangerous: small price moves = big dollar swings.
Common mistake
Treating futures like stocks. A 1% move in NQ at $20,000 ≈ $4,000 P&L per contract. That's not 1% of your account — it's 1% of $400,000 notional.Margin: initial vs maintenance+
Initial margin = what you post to OPEN a position. Maintenance margin = the floor below which you get a margin call. If your account drops below maintenance, you must either deposit more cash or close positions. Brokers can auto-liquidate.
Common mistake
Sizing positions assuming you can hold through any drawdown. Margin calls force exits at worst possible times.Contango vs backwardation+
The 'futures curve' is the prices of contracts at different expirations (front month, next month, etc).
• CONTANGO = future prices > current spot. Normal for storable goods (you pay to store oil, gold, wheat).
• BACKWARDATION = future prices < current spot. Common when there's near-term shortage (oil, electricity).
Why it matters: ETFs that hold futures (like USO for oil) bleed money in contango — they sell cheaper expiring contracts and buy more expensive next-month contracts every month. This is 'roll yield' and it's negative in contango, positive in backwardation.
The futures roll+
Futures expire. Most retail traders close before expiration to avoid physical delivery (or cash settlement at worse prices). 'Rolling' = closing the front-month contract and opening the next month's. Continuous futures charts on Yahoo (ES=F, etc.) splice these together automatically.
Reading the COT report+
Weekly CFTC report shows positioning by trader type:
• COMMERCIALS = hedgers (oil producers, miners, farmers). Usually 'wrong' at extremes — they're hedging, not predicting.
• LARGE SPECULATORS = hedge funds. Often trend-followers — extreme positioning = potential reversal signal.
• SMALL SPECS = retail. Almost always wrong at extremes.
Read at https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders. Free, weekly, dry as toast, but the data is gold.
Why futures move when stocks don't+
Cash markets (stocks) close at 4pm ET. Futures keep trading. Major news (Fed, earnings, geopolitics) hitting overnight moves futures, and futures lead the cash open. ES futures at 6am tells you where SPY will probably open.
When it matters
Earnings of NVDA, AAPL, etc. happen after the close. Watch NQ futures in after-hours to gauge the reaction.