Mid term · ~1 year
Themes playing out over the next 12 months. More patient than swing trades, less committed than buy-and-hold.
12-month plays let themes mature. The capex cycle, the regulatory cycle, the product cycle — all take quarters to play out. Less noise from daily moves.
Realistic hit rate: 55-70% on themes you research properly. Trends persist longer than people expect. The hard part is sitting still.
12 months gives a thesis time to be right and rewarded. Short-term moves can fight you for months. Mid-term holdings ride out the noise and capture the trend.
Mid-term theses
AI infrastructure capex stays elevated through 2027
Hyperscalers are guiding $300B+ in AI capex. Picks-and-shovels win until guidance cracks.
GLP-1 supply chain ripple effects
Obesity drug class is bigger than statins. Direct winners + indirect (snack/QSR losers, joint replacement winners) all in motion.
Defense modernization + drone era
Ukraine showed cheap drones beat expensive platforms. Defense budgets reflecting it. Old + new names both win.